Chevrolet Colorado '14-On GMC Canyon '14-On Jeep Grand Cherokee '10-On Land Rover LR3 / Discovery 3 '05-'09 Land Rover LR4 / Discovery 4 V8 5.0 Liter '10-'13 Range Rover Sport '06-'13 Toyota Land Cruiser 80 Series '90-'97 Toyota Land Cruiser 100 Series '98-'07 Toyota Land Cruiser 200 Series '08-On Lexus LX470 '98-'07 Lexus LX570 '08-On. Sterilite 15 Quart ClearView Latch Box - Dimensions: 17' L x 11 1/8' W x 6 1/2' H. Capacity: 15 Qt / 14 L. Clear lid & base w/Sweet Plum latches. Pack of 12 boxes with lids. Help bring order to your closet with the contemporary design. Clear lids and bases let you view contents from any angle. The Clearview Local Schools is committed to helping students and families during this unprecedented pandemic. Click HERE to view Clearview's 2020-2021 reopening plan. Click HERE to find community resources and updates related to COVID-19. The Clearview Local Schools opening day is Monday, August 31st.
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- Direct access to Highway 92
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Outdoor Space
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EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT
Your client is a mid-sized pharmaceutical company with an inhaled insulin product for the diabetes market. The client’s goal is to earn peak revenues of $300M/year in the U.S. and they have asked you to determine whether this sales goal is realistic by calculating the dollar value of the current insulin market and determining which factors will influence the success of the product.
What components do you need to know to determine the market size of this product?
In order to determine the market size for your client, you must know the following pieces of information:
- Prevalence of the Disease in the U.S.
- Disease Segmentation
- Diagnosis Rate
- Treatment Rate
- Pricing
After researching the insulin market, the following information was found. The prevalence of diabetes in the U.S. is approximately 20 M patients. Type I diabetes comprises 10% of the prevalent patient population, while the other 90% is comprised of patients with Type II diabetes. Of this affected population, nearly 100% of Type I patients are diagnosed, while only 65% of Type II patients are diagnosed. Furthermore, while 100% of Type I patients are treated with insulin, only approximately one-third of Type II patients are treated due to a variety of factors. Lastly, while the price and dose of insulin varies, your research has indicated that, on average, insulin therapy costs $80/month per patient. Your client has also indicated that pricing for the product they are developing would be in line with this.
Using this information, determine the current insulin market size and the percentage capture the client must achieve in order to reach their peak sales goal of $300 M/year.
- Prevalence of the Disease in the U.S.: 20 M patients
- Disease Segmentation
- Type I: (20 M patients)*(.10) = 2 M patients
- Type II: (20 M patients)*(.90) = 18 M patients
- Effect of Diagnosis Rate on Prevalent Patient Population
- Type I: (2 M patients)*(1) = 2 M diagnosed patients
- Type II: (18 M patients)*(0.65) = 12 M diagnosed patients
- Total: 14 M diagnosed patients
- Effect of Treatment Rate on Diagnosed Prevalent Patient Population
- Type I: (2 M patients)*(1) = 2 M treated patients
- Type II: (12 M patients)*(1/3) = 4 M treated patients
- Total: 6 M treated patients
- Pricing and Revenue
- ($80 month/patient)*(12 months) = ~$1,000 year/patient
- ($1,000 year/patient)*(6 M treated patients) = $6 B/year
- Market Capture
- ($300 M/year peak revenue goal)/($6 B/year total market size) = 5% capture
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In order to evaluate how realistic a 5% market penetration is for your client, what factors regarding the inhaled insulin product do you need to consider and how can each of them affect the success of the product?
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There are many factors that can affect the success of your client’s product, however some of the key considerations are:
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- Efficacy
- Safety
- Convenience
- Price
- Onset of Action
- Biologic Variability
Research into the first four areas revealed that the drug is indeed as efficacious as predicted in both short and long-term scenarios. Furthermore, the drug demonstrated strong tolerability and safety on a short-term scale, but long-term data was found to be lacking, particularly relative to injectable insulin which has had a long track record in the clinic. Lastly, while the price is comparable to current therapies on the market, the convenience of the product was limited due to the inhaler not being considered travel size by patients.
Considering all of the above information, do you feel that the client will be able to capture the 5% of the market they need to reach their current peak revenue sales goal? Why or why not?
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Ultimately, the research indicated that 5% market share was unlikely. Given the fact that the product did not improve upon efficacy or safety, the lack of convenience and lack of long-term safety data (relative to injectable insulin) was expected to severely limit use of the product.